In brief
The newly formed coalition government led by the premier, Juliana O'Connor-Connolly, will focus on cost-of-living and housing concerns. The territory's recent removal from the grey list of the Financial Action Task Force (a global watchdog) will support growth in the financial industry. Tourism revenue surpassed pre-pandemic levels in 2023, which will reduce pressure on the industry despite fewer arrivals. Visitor numbers will continue to recover in 2024, but a slowdown in US growth amid high inflation and monetary policy tightening will erode US consumers' disposable incomes, weighing on appetite for travel.
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Economic growth
| (% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| US GDP | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Developed economies GDP | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| World GDP | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 |
| World trade | -0.3 | 2.5 | 3.5 |
| Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit | |||
Inflation indicators
| (% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| US CPI | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| Developed economies CPI | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Manufactures (measured in US$) | 3.2 | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| Oil (Brent; US$/b) | 74.2 | 69.1 | 65.2 |
| Non-oil commodities (measured in US$) | 0.3 | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit | |||
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Financial variables
| (% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| US$ 3-month commercial paper rate (av; %) | 3.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| ¥ 3-month money market rate (av; %) | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| ¥:US$ (av) | 117.5 | 109.3 | 108.8 |
| Rmb:US$ (av) | 6.90 | 6.83 | 6.78 |
| Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit | |||