In brief
The government led by the premier, Natalio Wheatley, formed a coalition quickly following the April 2023 general election, but its slim majority leaves it vulnerable to defections. Mr Wheatley will focus on speeding up the implementation of governance reforms to prevent the UK home government from imposing direct rule. Tourism was decimated by the covid-19 crisis; an only tepid recovery in that sector will subdue economic performance in the 2024-25 forecast period, exacerbating weaknesses related to the long-term decline of the offshore business incorporation sector and an incomplete recovery from a devastating 2017 hurricane season.
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Economic growth
(% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
---|---|---|---|
US GDP | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
Developed economies GDP | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
World GDP | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 |
World trade | -0.3 | 2.5 | 3.5 |
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit |
Inflation indicators
(% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
---|---|---|---|
US CPI | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
Developed economies CPI | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Manufactures (measured in US$) | 3.2 | 2.2 | 2.6 |
Oil (Brent; US$/b) | 74.2 | 69.1 | 65.2 |
Non-oil commodities (measured in US$) | 0.3 | 1.6 | 2.3 |
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit |
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Financial variables
(% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
---|---|---|---|
US$ 3-month commercial paper rate (av; %) | 3.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
¥ 3-month money market rate (av; %) | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
¥:US$ (av) | 117.5 | 109.3 | 108.8 |
Rmb:US$ (av) | 6.90 | 6.83 | 6.78 |
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit |